In its latest monthly bulletin, the EU climate monitoring agency said there was a 20 per cent possibility that global temperatures in 2026 could match or exceed the record set in 2024, currently the hottest year on record.
The agency also noted that global temperatures are virtually certain to remain above 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels throughout 2026.
Furthermore, the four-year average temperature covering 2023 to 2026 is projected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris Agreement to limit the most severe impacts of global warming.
The report revealed that October recorded the highest global average surface air temperature ever documented for the month, reaching 1.75°C above the pre-industrial average recorded between 1850 and 1900.
This marked the third consecutive month in which global temperature anomalies exceeded 1.5°C.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus, said October continued a pattern of exceptional global warming, with record temperatures recorded across the Earth’s surface and oceans.
She attributed the additional warming partly to an exceptionally strong El Niño, which is intensifying the effects of climate change caused by human activities.
The latest findings come as international delegates gather in Turkey for the United Nations COP31 climate summit, following a year marked by devastating floods in Nepal, extreme heatwaves across Europe and severe wildfires in Indonesia.
Global weather forecasters have warned in recent months that the ongoing El Niño cycle, which is expected to peak later this year, could become the strongest ever recorded.
Last month, the climate phenomenon reportedly pushed temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean to an unprecedented level.
Although El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterised by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, its interaction with human-induced global warming increases the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts and severe flooding.
Forecasters have also warned that the lingering effects of the phenomenon could make 2027 the hottest year on record.
Meanwhile, the findings have renewed concerns over the global climate crisis, as countries struggle to meet commitments made under the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
United Nations assessments indicate that the long-term temperature threshold is likely to be breached within the coming years, highlighting the urgent need for countries to accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those generated by fossil fuels.
