With just days until the November 5 presidential election, more than 41 million Americans have already cast their ballots through early voting, either in person or by mail.
This significant early turnout is expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.Historically, Democrats are more likely to vote early or by mail, while Republicans often favor in-person voting on Election Day. This has created phenomena such as the “blue shift” or “red mirage” in swing states, where initial tallies favor Republicans, only to shift toward Democrats as mail-in ballots are counted.
In 2020, early voting played a key role in states like Georgia, where over 2.7 million early votes ultimately contributed to Joe Biden’s victory over Trump. This year, Democrats have continued to push for early voting, while Republicans, traditionally more skeptical of mail-in voting, have encouraged supporters to vote early, resulting in an increase in early Republican turnout compared to 2020.According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, Democrats currently make up 39.9% of early votes, with Republicans accounting for 36.3%. As Election Day approaches, both parties will be closely watching these early trends to gauge their chances in the swing states that could ultimately decide the election.
