The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.0%, a 0.2 percentage point drop from its previous estimate of 3.2%. The revision is primarily attributed to falling global crude oil prices—still a key driver of Nigeria’s economy.
The updated projection was released in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), published during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, D.C. The report highlights global and regional economic trends, warning of persistent vulnerabilities among oil-dependent nations.
For sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the IMF now expects economic growth to ease slightly, from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025. A modest rebound is projected in 2026, with growth expected to rise to 4.2%.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was identified as one of the key nations most affected by the continued slump in oil prices. The IMF also revised its 2026 forecast for Nigeria downward by 0.3 percentage points.
Elsewhere on the continent, the IMF reported similar pressures. South Africa’s growth outlook was cut by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 for 2026, citing sluggish recovery from 2024, increasing uncertainty, rising protectionism, and the impact of a slowing global economy.
A more dramatic revision came for South Sudan, where the IMF slashed the 2025 growth forecast by an alarming 31.5 percentage points. This sharp drop is linked to ongoing delays in resuming oil production after critical pipeline damage, significantly reducing export capacity and national revenue.
The IMF’s latest outlook underscores the structural fragility of resource-dependent economies and the continuing risks posed by global market volatility.
